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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 219 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 625 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO A SMALL PART OF WEST TEXAS * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT FROM 625 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF HOBBS NEW MEXICO TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF WINK TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 217...WW 218... DISCUSSION...ONGOING STORMS IN SE NM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD/SEWD TOWARD ADJACENT AREAS OF W TX THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED BY A RELATIVELY WARM/DEEPLY-MIXED INFLOW AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG...AND MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS...THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS DAMAGING GUSTS. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29015. ...THOMPSON
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 218 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 510 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 510 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO 10 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF LIBERAL KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 217... DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED STORMS FORMING ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY RISK IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KT. LATER THIS EVENING...STORM MERGERS COULD LEAD TO SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR STRONG/DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES TONIGHT. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020. ...THOMPSON
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 217 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 155 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST WYOMING * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL 1000 PM MDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF RAPID CITY SOUTH DAKOTA TO 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BAKER MONTANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && DISCUSSION...TSTMS IN PROGRESS OVER SWRN ND/NWRN SD SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF SERN MT. LOCAL ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26020. ...MEAD
STATUS FOR WATCH 0219 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
STATUS REPORT ON WW 218 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/25/13 ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-039-055-063-065-067-069-071-075-081-093-101-109-119-129- 137-153-171-175-179-181-187-189-193-199-203-260040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR FINNEY GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL KEARNY LANE LOGAN MEADE MORTON NORTON RAWLINS SCOTT SEWARD SHERIDAN SHERMAN STANTON STEVENS THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC057-087-145-260040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUNDY HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
STATUS REPORT ON WW 217 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/25/13 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 217 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-075-079-087-109-252240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE ROSEBUD WIBAUX NDC001-007-011-033-037-041-059-085-087-089-252240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT HETTINGER MORTON SIOUX SLOPE STARK SDC007-019-031-033-041-047-055-063-071-075-081-093-095-103-105- 113-117-121-137-252240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0799 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 252350Z - 260115Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB THROUGH THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF THIS EVENING. SUCH A THREAT COULD INCLUDE BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN A LOW TORNADO RISK. DISCUSSION...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED COMPLEX /POSSIBLY WITH SOME TRANSITORY SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS/ IS CENTERED ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER VICINITY WEST OF MCCOOK AS OF 2330Z...WITH SOME NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION EVIDENT OVER THE PAST HOUR. TOWERING CU IS NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FARTHER EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN VICINITY OF THE LEXINGTON-KEARNEY NEB AREAS...WHICH APPEARS TO COINCIDE WITH THE RESIDUAL INFLUENCE OF EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION. IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT THE FAR NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHWEST NEB STORMS MAY PERSIST/CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEAST INTO ADDITIONAL PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB THIS EVENING...FURTHER AIDED BY A PROBABLE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RELATIVELY WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION EXISTS INTO CENTRAL NEB COINCIDENT WITH AN ESTIMATED CORRIDOR OF 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. MIDDLE/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLY WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT VEERING WIND PROFILES ARE LIKELY RESULTING IN AROUND 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED MULTICELLS/SOME SUPERCELLS. SHOULD STORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE/OCCUR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A CONDITIONAL TORNADO RISK CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW LEVEL JET INCREASE AND PROXIMITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT. ..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 05/25/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 40490132 41160071 41509887 41149816 40329802 40029962 40360009 40490132
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0798 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0611 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...W TX...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 252311Z - 260015Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED. DISCUSSION...SEVERAL STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS ERN NM AS OF 23Z. WHILE UPPER FLOW IS MARGINAL...MODEST SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW OF ATOP SELY SFC WINDS IS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WHEN COMBINED WITH MODERATE MUCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ORGANIZED MULTICELL/MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURE...WHILE SEVERE WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. SOME UPSCALE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE AS OUTFLOWS MERGE THIS EVENING...THOUGH A GENERAL LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DIMINISHING OF AVAILABLE BUOYANCY WITH DIURNAL COOLING WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT THE THREAT NEAR/AFTER SUNSET. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WIND/HAIL...WW ISSUANCE WILL BE CONSIDERED IF COVERAGE TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN NM AND ADJACENT AREAS OF W TX. ..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 05/25/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 32820486 33860451 35350412 36950358 37000258 36960186 36980155 36050157 35550161 35020176 34800177 33800193 33060209 32080254 31460359 31700506 32820486
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF WRN KS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOMEWHAT GREATER RISK OF HAIL/WIND WITH ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO ORGANIZE FROM SERN NM ACROSS THE WRN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN KS. LATEST VIS/RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST DEEPENING CONVECTION ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY NM AND CONSIDERABLE CU IS NOW OBSERVED NWD ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE NM ROCKIES. FOR THIS REASON HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBS TO 15 PERCENT FOR HAIL/WIND. ELSEWHERE...1630Z OUTLOOK HAS BEEN CHANGED LITTLE. STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM ERN MT INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS PROCESS IS IN ITS INFANCY AND TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG WRN FRINGE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DARROW.. 05/25/2013 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/ ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING THE D1 PERIOD WITH UPPER LOWS CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NW INTO SWRN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND RIDGING FROM MB/ON SWD INTO THE MID/LOWER-MS VALLEY. WITHIN THE PREVAILING SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW REGIME FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE OVER WY WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY. ELSEWHERE...A SHEARED VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER TX WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD. IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN ELONGATED LEE CYCLONE WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM ERN WY INTO SWRN NEB/NERN CO. A TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THE LOW PRESSURE TO ALONG THE TX-NM BORDER WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATED OVER CNTRL OR ERN MT. A WARM FRONT WILL STRETCH SEWD FROM AN INTERSECTION WITH THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS SERN MT INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY WHILE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MODIFIES ACROSS NRN KS. ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF THE LEE CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN THE BACKING AND STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WHICH...IN TURN...WILL ENHANCE THE NWWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST PBL FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO SD. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR BENEATH AN EML... CHARACTERIZED BY 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...PER 12Z RAOBS. WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE AIR MASS FROM SERN MT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500-3000 J/KG. ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER ERN MT INTO WRN ND AND NERN WY WHERE DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE-MENTIONED VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND LOW-LEVEL WAA ARE INTERACTING WITH A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT /SEE 12Z RAP SOUNDING/. THE MORE RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND N OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TODAY WITH STORMS EVENTUALLY BECOMING ROOTED WITHIN THE DESTABILIZING PBL...ALONG AND S OF SURFACE WARM FRONT. OTHER SURFACE-BASED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND/OR FAVORED TERRAIN AS DAYTIME HEATING AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVERCOME REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY AS THE INITIAL STORM MODE GIVEN A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 40-50 KT OF WLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT HAZARD...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM SERN MT INTO WRN PARTS OF SD/NEB WHERE A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST. UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS INTO CLUSTERS OR AN MCS IS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... THE JUXTAPOSITION OF A MOIST PBL AND EML WILL PROMOTE MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2500 J/KG FORECAST. THOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT AMIDST A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR /BULK SHEAR VALUES AOB 30-35 KT/ MAY LIMIT THE DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION...THOUGH ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ...CNTRL/SRN TX THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... THE INFLUX OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /I.E. PW VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES/ SHOULD MAINTAIN SCATTERED TSTMS INVOF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS CNTRL TX. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...THOUGH THE MOIST/LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION WITH A RISK FOR A BRIEF TORNADO. OTHERWISE...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL/NERN NM...PORTIONS OF THE NRN/WRN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK PANHANDLE...FAR SERN CO...FAR SWRN KS... ...CNTRL/NERN NM...PORTIONS OF THE NRN/WRN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK PANHANDLE...FAR SERN CO...FAR SWRN KS... THE AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO CRITICAL DESIGNATION UPON COORDINATION WITH THE ALBUQUERQUE...EL PASO...AMARILLO...PUEBLO...AND DODGE CITY WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES. THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED OVER THE SERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WRN STATES. THIS WILL SERVE TO ESTABLISH A 700-MB WIND SPEED MAXIMUM ACROSS THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE TRAVERSING THE BROADER FLOW. AS VERTICAL MIXING DIURNALLY DEEPENS/STRENGTHENS INTO THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...SWLY SFC WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH RH VALUES FROM 8 TO 13 PERCENT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO THE MIDDLE 90S...WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS ENHANCING BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING/DRYING IN MANY LOCATIONS. AND...WITH ONGOING DROUGHT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS AFFIRMED BY THE LATEST MULTI-DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL CONSENSUS. ...LOCATIONS SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM...SRN CO...NRN/ERN AZ...SRN UT...SRN NV... CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS A BROAD AREA AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS. WHILE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW. ACCORDINGLY...CRITICAL DESIGNATION IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. ..COHEN.. 05/25/2013 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0456 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/ ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH IT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHWARD...WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO... DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN RESPONSE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MIXING OCCURRING UP TO NEAR 500 MB ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT DAY TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND 90S...ALONG WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THIS WILL FOSTER AT LEAST AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN MODEL DISCREPANCIES AS TO THE STRENGTH AND AREAL EXTENT OF THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS. THESE DISCREPANCIES PRECLUDE THE DELINEATION OF A CRITICAL FIRE THREAT. IF IT BECOMES CLEAR THAT SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL EXCEED THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD /20 MPH/ ON MORE THAN A TRANSIENT/LOCAL BASIS...A CRITICAL RISK COULD BE REQUIRED ACROSS SOME PORTION OF THIS AREA. ...MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ONCE AGAIN...STRONG INSOLATION COUPLED WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO DAYS PRIOR...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE. THESE MODEST /BUT SUB-CRITICAL/ WIND SPEEDS COUPLED WITH CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...